Comments on: Ignore your granny! http://northerndoctor.com/2008/12/28/ignore-your-granny/ "Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm and superstition" Adam Smith. A blog from a British doctor. Fri, 23 Jul 2010 08:24:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: northerndoctor http://northerndoctor.com/2008/12/28/ignore-your-granny/#comment-402 northerndoctor Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:47:53 +0000 http://northerndoctor.com/?p=443#comment-402 No, you are certainly right. I haven't been to look but it is almost a certainty that there is much more flu out there than gets reported to the various authorities. I am guessing that the public health bods assume that the reported cases tend to stay as a fixed proportion of the overall amount of flu. ie they are only the tip of the flu iceberg but a reliably constant tip. It may be a fudge but it is probably a reliable fudge. The alternatives (eg directly asking a large sample of the population) would be too time-consuming to provide useful timely data. That's my guess. Happy to be corrected/educated by anyone. No, you are certainly right. I haven’t been to look but it is almost a certainty that there is much more flu out there than gets reported to the various authorities.

I am guessing that the public health bods assume that the reported cases tend to stay as a fixed proportion of the overall amount of flu. ie they are only the tip of the flu iceberg but a reliably constant tip. It may be a fudge but it is probably a reliable fudge. The alternatives (eg directly asking a large sample of the population) would be too time-consuming to provide useful timely data.

That’s my guess. Happy to be corrected/educated by anyone.

]]> By: Soupdragon http://northerndoctor.com/2008/12/28/ignore-your-granny/#comment-401 Soupdragon Tue, 30 Dec 2008 13:56:54 +0000 http://northerndoctor.com/?p=443#comment-401 Just an idle thought from a idle person.... so, we all know not to bother gps with untreatable illnesses ("John Heyworth, president of the College of Emergency Medicine, said most people with flu would not need to see a health professional and would be fine within two or three days", etc, etc) but the stats seem to be based on people who DO seek help from their gps. I'm being somewhat flippant but...if non of the people with flu or FLI went to their gps would the stats be at all accurate? Are there other criteria/reports that make up the overall picture? For example, I'm surprised that the numbers of samples testing positive for flu A were approx.100 in week 50; that doesn't seem many to me. Given that several (>10) of the people I know (me inc.) have had flu or flu-like illness in Dec and went nowhere near their gps I'm curious about whether the stats are baseds only on gps reports. Apologies if this is an ignorant and/or tedious point S. Just an idle thought from a idle person…. so, we all know not to bother gps with untreatable illnesses (“John Heyworth, president of the College of Emergency Medicine, said most people with flu would not need to see a health professional and would be fine within two or three days”, etc, etc) but the stats seem to be based on people who DO seek help from their gps.
I’m being somewhat flippant but…if non of the people with flu or FLI went to their gps would the stats be at all accurate? Are there other criteria/reports that make up the overall picture?
For example, I’m surprised that the numbers of samples testing positive for flu A were approx.100 in week 50; that doesn’t seem many to me. Given that several (>10) of the people I know (me inc.) have had flu or flu-like illness in Dec and went nowhere near their gps I’m curious about whether the stats are baseds only on gps reports.
Apologies if this is an ignorant and/or tedious point

S.

]]> By: Lexin http://northerndoctor.com/2008/12/28/ignore-your-granny/#comment-400 Lexin Tue, 30 Dec 2008 13:07:42 +0000 http://northerndoctor.com/?p=443#comment-400 It's always a shock to see an elderly relation after a break of weeks or months - and this is what I'm telling myself after visiting my mother. She called me, she had a 'bad leg' and wanted extra help, and she seemed to have gone downhill since I last saw her which is before I was ill. But I can't fault the NHS doctors and nurses who looked after her during a recent hospital stay, or the carers who go in and cope with her every day (I live 100 miles away thanks to Norman Tebbitt and his 'get on your bike' theories of the 80s) those people have all the gratitude of which I'm capable and then some. It’s always a shock to see an elderly relation after a break of weeks or months – and this is what I’m telling myself after visiting my mother. She called me, she had a ‘bad leg’ and wanted extra help, and she seemed to have gone downhill since I last saw her which is before I was ill.

But I can’t fault the NHS doctors and nurses who looked after her during a recent hospital stay, or the carers who go in and cope with her every day (I live 100 miles away thanks to Norman Tebbitt and his ‘get on your bike’ theories of the 80s) those people have all the gratitude of which I’m capable and then some.

]]> By: northerndoctor http://northerndoctor.com/2008/12/28/ignore-your-granny/#comment-399 northerndoctor Mon, 29 Dec 2008 21:04:19 +0000 http://northerndoctor.com/?p=443#comment-399 I was fine after the flu vaccine but I once had a couple of anthrax vaccines when it looked as though Her Majesty was going to send me to warmer, sandier climes. Dreadful experience. I was fine after the flu vaccine but I once had a couple of anthrax vaccines when it looked as though Her Majesty was going to send me to warmer, sandier climes. Dreadful experience.

]]> By: The Shrink http://northerndoctor.com/2008/12/28/ignore-your-granny/#comment-398 The Shrink Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:08:34 +0000 http://northerndoctor.com/?p=443#comment-398 "<i>no hospital beds</i>" From a position of unusual smugness, I can say (whilst PCT commissioners can't hear me) that I've got over a dozen beds empty at the moment, so refershingly this isn't an issue in my corner. And it makes a world of a difference in feeling so de-stressed through knowing that if hospital in-patient care is needed, it can instantly happen. I've had the 'flu vaccine once, when I worked in GP land, and felt so awful after it that I've been shy to repeat the process. Not sure what EBM has to say on cohorts of medics who do/don't have the 'flu vaccine and consequent patient infection rates. “no hospital beds”

From a position of unusual smugness, I can say (whilst PCT commissioners can’t hear me) that I’ve got over a dozen beds empty at the moment, so refershingly this isn’t an issue in my corner.

And it makes a world of a difference in feeling so de-stressed through knowing that if hospital in-patient care is needed, it can instantly happen.

I’ve had the ‘flu vaccine once, when I worked in GP land, and felt so awful after it that I’ve been shy to repeat the process. Not sure what EBM has to say on cohorts of medics who do/don’t have the ‘flu vaccine and consequent patient infection rates.

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